Incidence and predictors of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis by serum biomarkers in a large cohort of human immunodeficiency virus mono-infected patients

Background. Longitudinal data on liver disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mono-infection are scarce. We used noninvasive serum biomarkers to study incidence and predictors of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis. Methods. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by hepatic steatosis index ≥36. Advanced liver fibrosis was diagnosed by fibrosis-4 index >3.25. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate incidences. Cox regression analysis was used to explore predictors of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis development. Results. In this retrospective observational study, 796 consecutive HIV mono-infected patients were observed for a median of 4.9 (interquartile range, 2.2-6.4) years. Incidence of hepatic steatosis was 6.9 of 100 per person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-7.9). Incidence of advanced liver fibrosis was 0.9 of 100 PY (95% CI, 0.6-1.3). Development of hepatic steatosis was predicted by black ethnicity (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.18; 95% CI, 1.58-3; P < .001) and lower albumin (aHR = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.97; P < .001). Development of advanced liver fibrosis was predicted by higher glucose (aHR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.2-1.3; P < .001) and lower albumin (aHR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.93; P < .001). Conclusions. Incident hepatic steatosis is frequent in HIV mono-infected patients, particularly in those of black ethnicity. These patients can also develop advanced liver fibrosis. Identification of at-risk individuals can help early initiation of hepatological monitoring and interventions, such as targeting euglycemia.