Prediction of 10-year risk of hard coronary events among Saudi adults based on prevalence of heart disease risk factors

Aim: Cardiovascular disease is becoming the lead cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and developing countries are the main contributors to this trend. Saudi Arabia, which is considered a rapidly developing country, faces progressive urbanization and the adoption of a westernized lifestyle, factors which contribute to the rising burden of cardiovascular disease. Our study evaluates the prevalence of coronary risk factors and predicts hard coronary artery events over 10 years in an urban Saudi cohort.

Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted on a Saudi population. The study involved Saudi subjects aged more than 20 years without a history of coronary heart disease. Demographic variables and hard coronary events (HCE) risk factors were measured. Each subject's 10-year HCE risk was estimated by means of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS).

Results: A total of 4932 subjects (2215 men and 2717 women) were examined, the majority (85%) of whom were less than 40 years old. The risk of developing HCE within the next 10 years was low in 92.6% of subjects, intermediate in 3.2% and high in 4.1%. On considering diabetes as coronary heart disease (CHD) risk-equivalent, 26% of subjects were at high risk for hard coronary events in 10 years. The HCE risk progressively increased with age and was higher in men.

Conclusions: Our study, the first to estimate the 10-year risk of HCE among adults in an emerging country, determined that a significant proportion of a younger aged population is at risk for the development of hard coronary events. Public awareness programs to control risk factors are warranted.