Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth Universe

Dennis W Lendrem; B Clare Lendrem; David Woods; Ruth Rowland-Jones; Matthew Burke; Marion Chatfield; John D Isaacs; Martin R Owen

doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015

Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth Universe

Drug Discov Today. 2015 Nov;20(11):1365-71. doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015. Epub 2015 Oct 23.

Authors

Dennis W Lendrem¹, B Clare Lendrem², David Woods³, Ruth Rowland-Jones⁴, Matthew Burke⁵, Marion Chatfield⁶, John D Isaacs², Martin R Owen⁶

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
³ Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
⁴ Centre for Bioengineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
⁵ GlaxoSmithKline, King of Prussia, PA, USA.
⁶ Centre for Medicines Research, GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK.

PMID: 26505134
DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015

Abstract

A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Computer Simulation*
Environment
Humans
Research Design*
Science / methods*