Predictions of log-amplitude variance are compared against sample log-amplitude variances reported by White, Andrew, Mercer, Worcester, Dzieciuch, and Colosi [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 3347-3358 (2013)] for measurements acquired during the 2009 Philippine Sea experiment and associated Monte Carlo computations. The predictions here utilize the theory of Munk and Zachariasen [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 59, 818-838 (1976)]. The scattering mechanism is the Garrett-Munk internal wave spectrum scaled by metrics based on measured environmental profiles. The transmitter was at 1000 m depth and the receivers at nominal range 107 km and depths 600-1600 m. The signal was a broadband m-sequence centered at 284 Hz. Four classes of propagation paths are examined: the first class has a single upper turning point at about 60 m depth; the second and third classes each have two upper turning points at roughly 250 m; the fourth class has three upper turning points at about 450 m. Log-amplitude variance for all paths is predicted to be 0.04-0.09, well within the regime of validity of either Born or Rytov scattering. The predictions are roughly consistent with the measured and Monte Carlo log-amplitude variances, although biased slightly low. Paths turning in the extreme upper ocean (near the mixed layer) seem to incorporate additional scattering mechanisms not included in the original theory.