Urine Injury Biomarkers and Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Recipients of Prevalent Kidney Transplants: The Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation Trial

Recipients of kidney transplants (KTR) are at increased risk for cardiovascular events, graft failure, and death. It is unknown whether urine kidney injury biomarkers are associated with poor outcomes among KTRs. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial using a case-cohort study design, selecting participants with adjudicated cardiovascular events, graft failure, or death. Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), IL-18, and liver-type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP) were measured in spot urine samples and standardized to urine creatinine concentration. We adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, eGFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. Patients had 291 cardiovascular events, 257 graft failure events, and 359 deaths. Each log increase in urine NGAL/creatinine independently associated with a 24% greater risk of cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06 to 1.45), a 40% greater risk of graft failure (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.68), and a 44% greater risk of death (aHR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.65). Urine KIM-1/creatinine and IL-18/creatinine independently associated with greater risk of death (aHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.61 and aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.49 per log increase, respectively) but not with risk of cardiovascular events or graft failure. Urine L-FABP did not associate with any study outcomes. In conclusion, among prevalent KTRs, higher urine NGAL, KIM-1, and IL-18 levels independently and differentially associated with greater risk of adverse outcomes.