The predictive value of high sensitivity-troponin velocity within the first 6h of presentation for cardiac outcomes regardless of acute coronary syndrome diagnosis

Background: Low-range troponin elevations without clear coronary manifestations remain a major diagnostic challenge. We sought to determine if troponin velocity could allow for early identification of patients without an obvious cardiac diagnosis and who are at increased risk for cardiac-specific events.

Methods & results: All patients presenting to South Australian public hospitals between 1 September 2011 and 30 September 2012, with at least two troponin measurements during the first 6h after ED presentation were included. Diagnoses were classified as 'coronary', 'non-coronary cardiac', and 'non-cardiac' using the International Classification of Diseases 10 codes. The relationship between troponin velocity and cardiac-specific mortality and combined cardiac outcome (death and myocardial infarction) was assessed using Fine and Gray competing risk models in patients with an initial troponin <52 ng/L. Sensitivity analyses were performed using different initial and maximum troponin cut-off values. In total, 7300 patients were identified. A troponin velocity of 2.5 ng/L/h or greater in the non-cardiac (n=2793) patient group was significantly associated with an increased risk for 12-month cardiac mortality (sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 2.90, 95% CI 1.33-6.34) and combined cardiac outcome (SHR 2.08, 95% CI 1.01-4.27). This association was consistent for coronary (n=3835) and non-coronary cardiac (n=672) patient groups, and remained after sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: The significant association observed across all patient groups suggests that troponin velocity could be used for early risk stratification of patients with low-range troponin elevations without clear cardiac symptoms. These results may help guide future clinical trials aimed at assessing the utility of cardiac-targeted interventions in this challenging patient population.