At present, methodology based on the stage T1a or T1b is used to determine the risk of incidental prostate cancer (IPC) progression. This approach was developed before the introduction of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) into the practice of the urologist, and does not account of the degree of IPC. For the prediction of IPC progression, multifactorial prognostic model was created. This model is based on the analysis of two parameters--the total PSA level before the surgery and the Gleason score according to the results of morphological examination after transurethral resection of the prostate hyperplasia. This model has a high predictive value (AUC 86.6%) and can be easily used in practice. For the interpretation of the calculated results special table is formed that allows to assess the risk of progression over the next 3.5 years.