Trends of Stroke Incidence from 1995 to 2013 in Joinville, Brazil

Background: Temporal trends on the incidence of stroke and its subtypes could help assess on-going public health policies and point to further targets for action among middle- and low-income countries, where the stroke burden is very high. This study aimed at evaluating longitudinal trends of stroke incidence in Joinville, Brazil.

Methods: We ascertained the incidence of all first-ever strokes occurred in 1995, 2005-2006 and 2012-2013, which were extracted from Joinville Stroke Registry, a prospective epidemiological data bank, launched in 1995.

Results: From 1995 to 2013, the age-adjusted incidence of all strokes decreased 37% (95% CI 32-42). From 2005 to 2013, the haemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence decreased 60% (95% CI 13-86), ischemic stroke (IS) incidence decreased 15% (95% CI 1-28), and subarachnoid haemorrhage incidence remained stable. The proportion of IS and HS patients with regularly treated hypertension increased by 60% (p = 0.01) and 33% (p = 0.01), respectively. The proportion of IS and HS patients that quit smoking increased 8% (p = 0.03) and 17% (p = 0.03), respectively.

Conclusions: Stroke incidence has been decreasing in Joinville over the last 18 years, more so for HS than IS. Better control of hypertension and tobacco use might explain these findings.