Anticipation of complications after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: prediction of individual outcome

Background: Complication rates after a laparoscopic cholecystectomy are still up to 10 %. Knowledge of individual patient risk profiles could help to reduce morbidity.

Aim: The aim of this study is to create risk profiles for specific complications to anticipate on individual outcome.

Patients and methods: Individual patient outcome for a specific post-operative complication was assessed from a retrospective database of two major teaching hospitals, using uni- and multivariable analyses.

Results: A total of 4359 patients were included of which 346 developed one or more complications (8 %). Five risk profiles were found to predict specific complications: older patients (>65 year) are at risk for pneumonia (OR 7.0, 95 % CI 3.3-15.0, p < 0.001) and bleeding (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.2-3.9, p = 0.014), patients with acute cholecystitis are at risk for intra-abdominal abscess (OR 5.9, 95 % CI 3.4-10.1, p < 0.001), bile leakage (OR 3.6, 95 % CI 2.0-6.6, p < 0.001) and pneumonia (OR 3.5, 95 % CI 1.6-7.6, p < 0.002), previous history of cholecystitis is predictive for wound infection (OR 5.1, 95 % CI, (2.7-9.7), p < 0.001), intra-abdominal abscess (OR 6.1, 95 % CI 2.8-13.8, p < 0.001), post-operative bleeding (OR 4.8, 95 % CI 2.1-11.1, p < 0.001), bile leakage (OR 7.2, 95 % CI 3.4-15.4, p < 0.001) and pneumonia (OR 3.9, 95 % CI 1.3-11.9, p = 0.018), pre-operative ERCP is predictive for intra-abdominal abscess (OR 3.3, 95 % CI 2.0-5.7, p < 0.001), post-operative bleeding (OR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.2-3.9, p = 0.058) and pneumonia (OR 3.8, 95 % CI 1.9-7.8, p = 0.001), and converted patients are at risk for wound infection (OR 4.0, 95 % CI 2.1-7.7, p < 0.001) and intra-abdominal abscess (OR 3.5, 95 % CI 1.6-7.7, p = 0.002).

Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of outcome after laparoscopic cholecystectomy is feasible. This facilitates individual pre-operative doctor-patient communication and may tailor surgical strategies.