Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila

PLoS One. 2016 May 2;11(5):e0154838. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154838. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Climate Change*
  • Droughts*
  • Endangered Species
  • Lizards
  • Population Dynamics
  • Weather

Grants and funding

This work was supported by a Grant from US BLM to Regents of University of California Santa Cruz Award #L12AC20104 www.grants.gov. The funders had a role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, and preparation of the manuscript. This work also received support from a Grant from The Nature Conservancy to Regents of the University of California Santa Cruz #12112012-1361 www.nature.org. The funder had a role in decision to publish, and preparation of the manuscript. California Department of Fish and Wildlife sopported this project and had a role in decision to publish, and preparation of the manuscript. An NSF grant EF-1241848 to B. Sinervo supported this work. The funder had a role in decision to publish, and preparation of the manuscript.