Penicillium expansum is among the most ubiquitous fungi disseminated worldwide, that could threaten the fruit sector by secreting patulin, a toxic secondary metabolite. Nevertheless, we lack sufficient data regarding the growth and the toxigenesis conditions of this species. This work enables a clear differentiation between the favorable conditions to the P. expansum growth and those promising for patulin production. A mathematical model allowing the estimation of the P. expansum growth rate according to temperature, a W, and pH, was also developed. An optimal growth rate of 0.92 cm/day was predicted at 24°C with pH level of 5.1 and high a W level of 0.99. The model's predictive capability was tested successfully on artificial contaminated apples. This model could be exploited by apple growers and the industrialists of fruit juices in order to predict the development of P. expansum during storage and apple processing.
Keywords: Growth rate; Penicillium expansum; pH; patulin production; predictive mycology; temperature; water activity.