Validation of the peak bilirubin criterion for outcome after partial hepatectomy

HPB (Oxford). 2016 Oct;18(10):806-812. doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2016.06.003. Epub 2016 Jul 2.

Abstract

Introduction: Postoperative liver failure (PLF) is a dreaded complication after partial hepatectomy. The peak bilirubin criterion (>7.0 mg/dL or ≥120 μmol/L) is used to define PLF. This study aimed to validate the peak bilirubin criterion as postoperative risk indicator for 90-day liver-related mortality.

Methods: Characteristics of 956 consecutive patients who underwent partial hepatectomy at the Maastricht University Medical Centre or Royal Free London between 2005 and 2012 were analyzed by uni- and multivariable analyses with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results: Thirty-five patients (3.7%) met the postoperative peak bilirubin criterion at median day 19 with a median bilirubin level of 183 [121-588] μmol/L. Sensitivity and specificity for liver-related mortality after major hepatectomy were 41.2% and 94.6%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 22.6%. Predictors of liver-related mortality were the peak bilirubin criterion (p < 0.001, OR = 15.9 [95%CI 5.2-48.7]), moderate-severe steatosis and fibrosis (p = 0.013, OR = 8.5 [95%CI 1.6-46.6]), ASA 3-4 (p = 0.047, OR = 3.0 [95%CI 1.0-8.8]) and age (p = 0.044, OR = 1.1 [95%CI 1.0-1.1]).

Conclusion: The peak bilirubin criterion has a low sensitivity and positive predictive value for 90-day liver-related mortality after major hepatectomy.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bilirubin / blood*
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Female
  • Hepatectomy / adverse effects*
  • Hepatectomy / mortality
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure / blood*
  • Liver Failure / diagnosis
  • Liver Failure / mortality
  • Logistic Models
  • London
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Netherlands
  • Odds Ratio
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Up-Regulation
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • Bilirubin