Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source and Detection of Atrial Fibrillation on Follow-Up: How Much Causality Is There?

J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2016 Dec;25(12):2975-2980. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2016.08.015. Epub 2016 Sep 6.

Abstract

Background: There is increasing debate whether atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes during follow-up in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) are causally associated with the event. AF-related strokes are more severe than strokes of other etiologies. In this context, we aimed to compare stroke severity between ESUS patients diagnosed with AF during follow-up and those who were not. We hypothesized that, if AF episodes detected during follow-up are indeed causally associated with the index event, stroke severity in the AF group should be higher than the non-AF group.

Methods: Dataset was derived from the Athens Stroke Registry. ESUS was defined by the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International-Working-Group criteria. Stroke severity was assessed by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. Cumulative probabilities of recurrent stroke or peripheral embolism in the AF and non-AF ESUS groups were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses.

Results: Among 275 ESUS patients, AF was detected during follow-up in 80 (29.1%), either during repeated electrocardiogram monitoring (18.2%) or during hospitalization for stroke recurrence (10.9%). NIHSS score was similar between the two groups (5 [2-13] versus 5 [2-14], P = .998). More recurrent strokes or peripheral embolisms occurred in the AF group compared with the non-AF group (42.5% versus 13.3%, P = .001).

Conclusions: Stroke severity is similar between ESUS patients who were diagnosed with AF during follow-up and those who were not. Given that AF-related strokes are more severe than strokes of other etiologies, this finding challenges the assumption that the association between ESUS and AF detected during follow-up is as frequently causal as regarded.

Keywords: Stroke; atrial fibrillation; embolism; stroke severity.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Atrial Fibrillation / diagnosis
  • Atrial Fibrillation / epidemiology*
  • Disability Evaluation
  • Electrocardiography
  • Female
  • Greece / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Intracranial Embolism / diagnosis
  • Intracranial Embolism / epidemiology*
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Recurrence
  • Registries
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Stroke / diagnosis
  • Stroke / epidemiology*
  • Time Factors