Is colorectal surgery beyond the age of 80 still feasible with acceptable mortality? An analysis of the predictive value of CR-POSSUM and life expectancy after hospital discharge

Colorectal Dis. 2017 Jan;19(1):58-64. doi: 10.1111/codi.13539.

Abstract

Aim: Increased morbidity and mortality could mitigate the positive effect of surgery in elderly patients undergoing colorectal resections. This retrospective study aims to describe early morbidity and mortality together with long-term survival in octogenarians and nonagenarians undergoing colorectal surgery. Predictors for in-hospital mortality are identified. The predictive value of CR-POSSUM is assessed.

Method: Data on consecutive patients 80 years old or more undergoing a colorectal resection in our centre from 2004 until 2010 were analysed.

Results: Some 286 patients [median age 84 years; interquartile range (IQR) 81.6-86.1; 133 men, 47%] underwent a colorectal resection. Median follow-up was 32 months (IQR 14.5-51.2). Two hundred and fifty-eight patients (90%) were operated on for malignancy. Only 64 patients (22.4%) underwent a laparoscopic procedure. Overall median hospital stay was 12 days (IQR 9.0-20.0) and in-hospital mortality was 9.4%. Seventy-six per cent (n = 170) of patients could return home after discharge. The 1-year survival rate was 78.6% (95% CI 73.8-82.7). Median CR-POSSUM for in-hospital mortality was 12.6% (IQR 11.9-21.0). The concordance probability estimate was 0.668 (95% CI 0.609-0.728), reflecting a moderate predictive capacity of CR-POSSUM. Once patients had been discharged from hospital, life expectancy was similar to that of the Belgian general population.

Conclusion: Colorectal surgery in octogenarians and nonagenarians resulted in a considerable in-hospital mortality of about 9%. One-year mortality added an additional 12%, which is in concordance with the overall life expectancy at that age.

Keywords: CR-POSSUM; colorectal surgery; mortality; surgery in elderly.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors*
  • Aged, 80 and over*
  • Digestive System Surgical Procedures / methods
  • Digestive System Surgical Procedures / mortality*
  • Feasibility Studies
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Intestinal Diseases / pathology
  • Intestinal Diseases / surgery*
  • Laparoscopy / methods
  • Laparoscopy / mortality
  • Length of Stay / statistics & numerical data
  • Life Expectancy*
  • Male
  • Patient Discharge / statistics & numerical data
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Severity of Illness Index*
  • Survival Rate