Development and Validation of the Procedure-Related Neurologic Complications Risk Score for Elderly Patients with Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Undergoing Endovascular Treatment

World Neurosurg. 2017 Apr:100:648-657.e2. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2017.01.085. Epub 2017 Jan 31.

Abstract

Objectives: Our aim was to develop and validate a procedure-related neurologic complications (PNC) risk score for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT).

Methods: Preoperatively collected data, including clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics of consecutive elderly patients (≥60 years), were used to develop a PNC risk predictive score based on the coefficients (β) of a multivariable logistic regression analysis. The PNC included intraprocedural rupture, thromboembolic events, and rebleeding within 30 days after EVT.

Results: Overall, 520 elderly patients who underwent EVT were enrolled. At 30 days, the PNC rate was 13.08%. Six risk factors were independently associated with PNC and comprised the PNC score (PNC score, 0-16 points): hypertension (2 points), Hunt-Hess grade ≥4 (3 points), Fisher grade ≥3 (2 points), wide-necked aneurysm (2 points), with a bleb on the aneurysm sac (3 points), and aneurysm size (3-10 mm, 1 point; <3 mm, 4 points). The PNC score model predicted the risk of PNC at a sensitivity of 63.22% and specificity of 84.79%. Moreover, the PNC score demonstrated significant discrimination (area under curve, 0.799; P < 0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.319). Excellent prediction, discrimination, and calibration properties were reproduced by the internal validation group with bootstrapping techniques.

Conclusions: The PNC score can be an easily applicable tool for predicting the risk of PNC for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing EVT. Our study provides large case-based evidence supporting the integration of individual clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics to predict PNC risk.

Keywords: Complication; Elderly; Endovascular treatment; Intracranial aneurysm; Risk score.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aneurysm, Ruptured / diagnosis
  • Aneurysm, Ruptured / surgery*
  • Area Under Curve
  • Calibration
  • Endovascular Procedures*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / diagnosis
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / surgery*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Postoperative Complications / diagnosis*
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • ROC Curve
  • Risk Assessment*