Objectives: To analyse the impact of a risk factor on several epidemiological indicators of death and dementia; the example of sport practice is presented.
Methods: A population of 3670 non-demented subjects living at home and aged 65 and older from the PAQUID study were followed for 22 years. Sport practice was documented at baseline. Dementia (according to DSM-III-R criteria) and death were assessed at each visit. Analyses were performed with an Illness-Death model, providing results on the risks of dementia and death, probabilities and life expectancies.
Results: A total of 743 subjects (20.2%) participated in regular sport practice. During the follow-up, the proportion of death was lower in the elderly people practicing sport (EPPS), whereas the proportion of incident dementia cases was the same. The adjusted model showed a decreased risk of dementia (HR = 0.84 (0.72-1.00)) and of death for non-demented subjects (HR = 0.61 (0.51-0.71)) for EPPS but a similar risk of death with dementia in both sport groups. The probability of remaining alive without dementia was higher in EPPS, whereas the probability of dying was lower. The mean lifetime without dementia was 3 years higher for the EPPS, but the mean lifetime with dementia was the same.
Discussion: A preventive measure on a protective factor that is more effective for preventing death than dementia could lead to an increased lifetime without dementia; however, the number of demented cases may remain unchanged, even if the risk of developing dementia is reduced. This dynamic is important to forecast the need for health care and social services for the elderly.