Utility of Electronic Medical record-based Fibrosis Scores in Predicting Advanced Cirrhosis in Patients with Hepatitic C Virus Infection

Objective: To determine whether advanced cirrhosis - defined by the detection of nodular liver contours or portal venous collaterals on imaging studies - could be predicted by fibrosis algorithms, calculated using laboratory and demographic features extracted from patients' electronic medical records. To this end, we compared seven EMR-based fibrosis scores with liver imaging studies in a cohort of HCV patients.

Methods: A search of our health system's patient data warehouse identified 867 patients with chronic HCV infection. A total of 565 patients had undergone at least one liver imaging study and had no confounding medical condition affecting the imaging features or fibrosis scores. Demographic and laboratory data were used to calculate APRI, Fib4, Fibrosis Index, Forns, GUCI, Lok Index and Vira-HepC scores for all viremic patients who had undergone liver imaging. Data points selected for the calculation of these scores were based on laboratory results obtained within the shortest possible time from the imaging study. Areas under the receiver operating curves (AUROC), optimum cut-offs, sensitivities, specificities and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for each score.

Results: Seven algorithms were performed similarly in predicting cirrhosis. Sensitivities ranged from 0.65 to 1.00, specificities from 0.67 to 0.90, positive predictive values from 0.33 to 0.38, and negative predictive values from 0.93 to 1.00. No individual test was superior, as the confidence intervals of all AUROCs overlapped.

Conclusions: EMR-based scoring systems performed relatively well in ruling out advanced, radiologically-defined cirrhosis. However, their moderate sensitivity and positive predictive values limit their reliability for EMR-based diagnosis.