Decision-Making in Critical Limb Ischemia: A Markov Simulation

Ann Vasc Surg. 2017 Nov:45:1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.avsg.2017.07.004. Epub 2017 Jul 21.

Abstract

Background: Critical limb ischemia (CLI) is a feared complication of peripheral vascular disease that often requires surgical management and may require amputation of the affected limb. We developed a decision model to inform clinical management for a 63-year-old woman with CLI and multiple medical comorbidities, including advanced heart failure and diabetes.

Methods: We developed a Markov decision model to evaluate 4 strategies: amputation, surgical bypass, endovascular therapy (e.g. stent or revascularization), and medical management. We measured the impact of parameter uncertainty using 1-way, 2-way, and multiway sensitivity analyses.

Results: In the base case, endovascular therapy yielded similar discounted quality-adjusted life months (26.50 QALMs) compared with surgical bypass (26.34 QALMs). Both endovascular and surgical therapies were superior to amputation (18.83 QALMs) and medical management (11.08 QALMs). This finding was robust to a wide range of periprocedural mortality weights and was most sensitive to long-term mortality associated with endovascular and surgical therapies. Utility weights were not stratified by patient comorbidities; nonetheless, our conclusion was robust to a range of utility weight values.

Conclusions: For a patient with CLI, endovascular therapy and surgical bypass provided comparable clinical outcomes. However, this finding was sensitive to long-term mortality rates associated with each procedure. Both endovascular and surgical therapies were superior to amputation or medical management in a range of scenarios.

Publication types

  • Case Reports

MeSH terms

  • Amputation, Surgical* / adverse effects
  • Amputation, Surgical* / mortality
  • Cardiovascular Agents / adverse effects
  • Cardiovascular Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Clinical Decision-Making*
  • Comorbidity
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Critical Illness
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Decision Trees
  • Endovascular Procedures* / adverse effects
  • Endovascular Procedures* / instrumentation
  • Endovascular Procedures* / mortality
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Ischemia / diagnosis
  • Ischemia / mortality
  • Ischemia / physiopathology
  • Ischemia / therapy*
  • Markov Chains
  • Middle Aged
  • Peripheral Arterial Disease / diagnosis
  • Peripheral Arterial Disease / mortality
  • Peripheral Arterial Disease / physiopathology
  • Peripheral Arterial Disease / therapy*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Retreatment
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Stents
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Vascular Grafting* / adverse effects
  • Vascular Grafting* / mortality

Substances

  • Cardiovascular Agents