Estimating the incidence and 30-day all-cause mortality rate of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England by 2020/21

A Bhattacharya; O Nsonwu; A P Johnson; R Hope

doi:10.1016/j.jhin.2017.09.021

Estimating the incidence and 30-day all-cause mortality rate of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England by 2020/21

J Hosp Infect. 2018 Mar;98(3):228-231. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2017.09.021. Epub 2017 Sep 30.

Authors

A Bhattacharya¹, O Nsonwu¹, A P Johnson¹, R Hope²

Affiliations

¹ Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, Public Health England, London, UK.
² Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, Public Health England, London, UK. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 28974468
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2017.09.021

Abstract

Escherichia coli bacteraemia rates have been increasing in England. Using the national mandatory surveillance data for E. coli bacteraemia from 2012/13 to 2016/17, we aimed to estimate the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia and 30-day all-cause case fatality rate (CFR) by 2020/21 in the absence of new interventions to reduce infection rates. After controlling for age, sex, and hospital versus community-onset of infection, it is estimated that the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia will be 90.5 (95% PI: 89.8-91.3) per 100,000 population (N = 50,663), with an associated CFR of 11.5 (95% PI: 11.2-11.8) per 100,000 population (N = 6554), by 2020/21.

Keywords: 30-day all-cause mortality; Bacteraemia; Case-fatality rate; E. coli; England; Forecast; Incidence.

MeSH terms

Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bacteremia / epidemiology*
Bacteremia / mortality*
England / epidemiology
Epidemiological Monitoring
Escherichia coli Infections / epidemiology*
Escherichia coli Infections / mortality*
Female
Humans
Incidence
Male
Mandatory Reporting
Mortality