Excellent Outcomes of Liver Transplantation Following Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Within Milan Criteria: A Multicenter Study

Background & aims: Single-center studies have reported excellent outcomes of patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after successful down-staging (reduction of tumor burden with local-regional therapy), but multi-center studies are lacking. We performed a multi-center study, applying a uniform down-staging protocol, to assess outcomes of liver transplantation and performed an intention to treat analysis. We analyzed factors associated with treatment failure, defined as dropout from the liver transplant waitlist due to tumor progression, liver-related death without transplant, or recurrence of HCC after transplant.

Methods: We performed a retrospective multi-center study of 187 consecutive adults with HCC enrolled in the down-staging protocol at 3 liver transplant centers in California (Region 5), from 2002 through 2012. All patients underwent abdominal imaging 1 month after each local-regional treatment, and at a minimum of once every 3 months. The primary outcome was probability of treatment failure.

Results: Liver transplantation was performed after successful down staging in 109 patients (58%). Tumor explant from only 1 patient had poorly differentiated grade and 7 (6.4%) had vascular invasion. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis of data collected a median 4.3 years after liver transplantation, 95% of patients would survive 1 year and 80% of patients would survive 5 years; probabilities of recurrence-free survival were 95% and 87%, respectively. There were no center-specific differences in survival in the intention to treat analysis (P = .62), in survival after liver transplantation (P = .95), or in recurrence of HCC (P = .99). Patients were removed from the liver transplantation waitlist due to tumor progression in (n = 59; 32%) or liver-related death without liver transplantation (n = 9; 5%). Factors associated with treatment failure, based on multivariable analysis, were pre-treatment levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >1000 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 3.3; P < .001) and Child Pugh class B or C (hazard ratio, 1.6; P < .001). The probability of treatment failure at 2 years from the first down-staging procedure was 100% for patients with levels of AFP >1000 and Child Pugh class B or C vs 29.4% for patients with neither risk factor (P < .001).

Conclusions: In a retrospective, multi-center study on HCC down staging under a uniform protocol, we found patients to have excellent outcomes following liver transplantation, with no center-specific effects. Our findings support application of the down-staging protocol on a broader scale. Patients with Child Pugh class B or C and AFP >1000 are unlikely to benefit from down staging.