Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-Term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma

Cancer Res Treat. 2018 Oct;50(4):1130-1139. doi: 10.4143/crt.2017.171. Epub 2017 Dec 4.

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree.

Materials and methods: The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristicswere assessed in both groups.

Results: Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making.

Conclusion: The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

Keywords: Decision trees; Long-term survivors; Neoplasm metastasis; Uveal melanoma.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Clinical Decision-Making
  • Decision Trees*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • L-Lactate Dehydrogenase / blood*
  • Male
  • Melanoma / blood
  • Melanoma / diagnosis*
  • Melanoma / metabolism
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Metastasis
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis
  • Survival Rate
  • Uveal Neoplasms / blood
  • Uveal Neoplasms / diagnosis*
  • Uveal Neoplasms / metabolism
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • L-Lactate Dehydrogenase

Supplementary concepts

  • Uveal melanoma