Objective: Currently, most studies only reveal the relationship between baseline high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels and metabolic syndrome (MetS). The relationship between dynamic changes in HDL-c or LDL-c and MetS remains unclear. We aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the dynamic changes in HDL-c or LDL-c and MetS.
Design: A prospective study.
Setting: The Medical Centre of the Second Hospital affiliated with Dalian Medical University from 2010 to 2016.
Participants: A total of 4542 individuals who were initially MetS-free and completed at least two follow-up examinations as part of the longitudinal population were included.
Methods: The Joint Interim Statement criteria 2009 were used to define MetS. We used the Joint model to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of incident MetS.
Results: The cumulative incidence of MetS was 17.81% and was 14.86% in men and 5.36% in women during the 7 years of follow-up. In the Joint models, the RRs of the longitudinal decrease in HDL-c and the longitudinal increase in LDL-c for the development of MetS were 18.8781-fold (95% CI 12.5156 to 28.4900) and 1.3929-fold (95% CI 1.2283 to 1.5795), respectively.
Conclusions: The results highlight that the dynamic longitudinal decrement of HDL-c or the increment of LDL-c is associated with an elevated risk of MetS.
Keywords: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; joint model; longitudinal cohort study; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol metabolic syndrome.
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