Application of a mixture model to assess the effect of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine on the mumps epidemic in children from kindergarten to early school age in Jiangsu Province, China

Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2018;14(11):2654-2659. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2018.1480239. Epub 2018 Jun 28.

Abstract

A single dose of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine has been applied in routine immunizations for children in China; however, the Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody level of mumps in children from kindergarten to early school age with MMR vaccine immunization history has not been elucidated. This study aimed to describe the immunity profile of children from kindergarten to early school age to identify the susceptible population. In Jiangsu Province, a cross-sectional survey of 4- to 8-year-old children who were vaccinated with at least one dose of MMR vaccine was conducted. IgG antibody results were analyzed by employing both the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) cutoff values and the mixture model. A total of 7436 eligible subjects were enrolled: 3386 subjects were in kindergarten, and 4450 were in primary school. The overall seroprevalence (75.4%, 95% CI: 74.4%-76.4%) and Geometric mean concentration (GMC, 201.4U/ml, 95% CI: 194.1-209.4) of mumps antibodies in 2016 were low. The seroprevalence of children in kindergarten (78.1%, 95% CI: 76.6%-79.4%) was significantly higher than that of children in primary school (73.2%, 95% CI: 71.2%-74.6%). The GMC was negatively correlated with the time of inoculation (F = 32.17, P = 0.002). The mixture model enables a more comprehensive understanding of serological results by investigating four levels of antibody response, suggesting that there is a small fraction of the population with waning immunity. Children in kindergarten and primary school whom had received one dose of MMR vaccine were at a higher risk of mumps infection, particularly the 7-year-old group in the central region. Therefore, the single-dose MMR vaccine schedule has a limited impact on mumps control and prevention, and a two-dose MMR vaccine schedule should be introduced.

Keywords: geometric mean concentration; mixture model; mumps; seroprevalence.

Grants and funding

This work was supported by The “333” Project of Jiangsu Province (SURENCAI201605) This work was supported by The Medical and Scientific Research Project of Jiangsu Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission (H2017016) This work was supported by the Jiangsu Provincial Medical Youth Talent (QNRC2016547) This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81502860) This work was supported by the < National Natural Science Foundation of China > under Grant < number 81502860 > ; < The Medical and Scientific Research Project of Jiangsu Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission > under Grant < number H2017016 > ; < The Science & Technology Demonstration Project for major Emerging Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention > under Grant < number BE2015714 >< The “333” Project of Jiangsu Province > under Grant < number SURENCAI201605 > ; and < Jiangsu Provincial Medical Youth Talent > under Grant < number QNRC2016547 >.