Using the American Thyroid Association Risk-Stratification System to Refine and Individualize the American Joint Committee on Cancer Eighth Edition Disease-Specific Survival Estimates in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Background: The eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system has reclassified up to one third of differentiated thyroid cancer patients into one of the younger prognostic stage groups (<55 years of age at diagnosis, stage I or stage II). This reclassification widens the spectrum of disease in these lower stages without significantly impacting overall disease-specific survival (DSS) for the entire stage group. However, the optimistic DSS estimates in the <55-year-old stage groups may not accurately reflect the prognosis of individual patients with American Thyroid Association (ATA) high-risk features. Therefore, the aim of this study was to integrate the ATA risk classification system into the eighth edition AJCC staging system to refine and individualize DSS estimates for differentiated thyroid cancer patients aged <55 years at diagnosis.

Methods: Using the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center tumor registry, 4881 adult DTC patients aged <55 years at diagnosis receiving initial therapy between 1980 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Using Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center registry coded data, all patients were assigned an eighth edition AJCC stage (I or II), ATA risk of recurrence (low, intermediate, or high), and age group at diagnosis (younger patients defined as ≤45 years old, older patients defined as 45-55 years old). The primary outcome was 10-year DSS.

Results: A total of 122 (2.5%) disease-related deaths were observed in the cohort of 4881 patients during a median follow-up of 6.6 years. Integration of the AJCC stage, ATA risk, and age groups identified six subgroups with differing outcomes: (i) stage I/ATA low risk, younger and older, 100% DSS; (ii) stage I/ATA intermediate risk, younger and older, 98% DSS; (iii) stage I/ATA high risk, younger, 95% DSS; (iv) stage I/ATA high risk, older, 89% DSS; (v) stage II/ATA high risk, younger, 78% DSS; and (vi) stage II/ATA high risk, older, 61% DSS.

Conclusions: Integration of AJCC stage, ATA risk, and age group (i) identifies six subgroups of patients with progressively worse DSS as AJCC stage, ATA risk, and age increases, and (ii) provides a more individualized estimate of DSS, especially in ATA high-risk patients.