A general method for estimating seed dormancy and colonisation in annual plants from the observation of existing flora

In plant ecology, characterising colonisation and extinction in plant metapopulations is challenging due to the non-detectable seed bank that allows plants to emerge after several years of absence. In this study, we used a Hidden Markov Model to characterise seed dormancy, colonisation and germination solely from the presence-absence of standing flora. Applying the model to data from a long-term survey of 38 annual weeds across France, we identified three homogeneous functional groups: (1) species persisting preferentially through spatial colonisation, (2) species persisting preferentially through seed dormancy and (3) a mix of both strategies. These groups are consistent with existing ecological knowledge, demonstrating that ecologically meaningful parameters can be estimated from simple presence-absence observations. These results indicate that such studies could contribute to the design of weed management strategies. They also open the possibility of testing life-history theories such as the dormancy/colonisation trade-off in natura.