Predictors of medium-term mortality in patients hospitalised with coronary artery disease in a resource-limited South-East Asian setting

Objective: To measure medium-term outcomes and determine the predictors of mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) both during and after hospitalisation in a resource-limited South-East Asian setting.

Methods: From February 2013 to December 2014, we conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 477 patients admitted to Makassar Cardiac Center, Indonesia, with acute coronary syndrome and stable CAD. We actively obtained data on clinical outcomes and after-discharge management until April 2017. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to examine predictors for our primary outcome, all-cause mortality.

Results: From hospital admission, patients were followed over a median of 18 (IQR 6-36) months; in total 154 (32.3%) patients died. More patients with acute myocardial infarction died in the hospital compared with patients with unstable and stable angina (p=0.002). Over the total follow-up, there was a difference in mortality between non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (n=41, 48.2%), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (n=65, 30.8%), unstable angina (n=18, 26.5%) and stable coronary artery disease (n=30, 26.5%) groups (p=0.007). The independent predictors of all-cause mortality were hyperglycaemia on admission (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.14), p=0.008), heart failure/Killip class ≥2 (HR 2.50 (95% CI 1.76 to 3.56), p<0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min (HR 1.77 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.50), p=0.001), no revascularisation (percutaneous coronary intervention/coronary artery bypass grafting) (HR 2.38 (95% CI 1.31 to 4.33), p=0.005) and poor adherence to after-discharge medications (HR 10.28 (95% CI 5.52 to 19.16), p<0.001). Poor medication adherence predicted postdischarge mortality and did so irrespective of underlying CAD diagnosis (p interaction=0.88).

Conclusions: Patients with CAD in a poor South-East Asian setting experience high in-hospital and medium-term mortality. The initial severity of the disease, lack of access to guidelines-recommended therapy and poor adherence to after-discharge medications are the main drivers for excess mortality. Improved access to early and late hospital care and patient education should be prioritised for better survival.