Time-Series Analysis of Air Pollution and Health Accounting for Covariate-Dependent Overdispersion

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1;187(12):2698-2704. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy170.

Abstract

Time-series studies are routinely used to estimate associations between adverse health outcomes and short-term exposures to ambient air pollutants. Use of the Poisson log-linear model with the assumption of constant overdispersion is the most common approach, particularly when estimating associations between daily air pollution concentrations and aggregated counts of adverse health events throughout a geographical region. We examined how the assumption of constant overdispersion plays a role in estimation of air pollution effects by comparing estimates derived from the standard approach with those estimated from covariate-dependent Bayesian generalized Poisson and negative binomial models that accounted for potential time-varying overdispersion. Through simulation studies, we found that while there was negligible bias in effect estimates, the standard quasi-Poisson approach can result in a larger standard error when the constant overdispersion assumption is violated. This was also observed in a time-series study of daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases and ozone concentration in Atlanta, Georgia (1999-2009). Allowing for covariate-dependent overdispersion resulted in a reduction in the ozone effect standard error, while the ozone-associated relative risk remained robust to different model specifications. Our findings suggest that improved characterization of overdispersion in time-series modeling can result in more precise health effect estimates in studies of short-term environmental exposures.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants / analysis*
  • Air Pollution / adverse effects*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computer Simulation
  • Emergency Service, Hospital / statistics & numerical data
  • Environmental Exposure / analysis*
  • Epidemiologic Research Design*
  • Georgia / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Ozone / analysis
  • Respiration Disorders / epidemiology*

Substances

  • Air Pollutants
  • Ozone