Predictors of advanced fibrosis in non-cirrhotic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Germany

Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2018 Nov;48(10):1109-1116. doi: 10.1111/apt.14976. Epub 2018 Oct 4.

Abstract

Background: Advanced fibrosis has been established as the most important predictor of overall mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In contrast to cirrhosis, advanced, non-cirrhotic NAFLD is difficult to identify and data from Germany are lacking.

Aim: To identify clinical factors associated with advanced, non-cirrhotic fibrosis.

Methods: Patients were recruited in the prospectively enrolling European NAFLD Registry. Clinical characteristics and the performance of non-invasive surrogate scores compared with vibration-controlled transient elastography are reported.

Results: Two hundred and sixty-one patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD on liver biopsy (mean age 51 years, equal sex distribution) were included. The prevalence of stage 3 fibrosis on liver biopsy was 15.7%. These patients were significantly older (57 vs 50 years, P < 0.01), had a higher body mass index (32.3 vs 30.5, P < 0.05), and more frequent arterial hypertension (78% vs 50%, P = 0.001) and type 2 diabetes (61% vs 24.1%, P < 0.001). On multivariate logistic regression, diabetes (OR = 4.68, 95% CI 2.17-10.10) and hypertension (OR = 2.91, 95% CI 1.12-7.18) were independent predictors of advanced fibrosis. Comedication included metformin in 50% and insulin in 33% of patients with diabetes. Despite the presence of cardiovascular risk factors, the use of statins was low. Liver stiffness measurement identified advanced fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.91). The performance of NAFLD fibrosis score, Fibrosis-4, and AST to platelet ratio index were lower with AUCs of 0.74, 0.71, and 0.67, respectively.

Conclusions: The prevalence of metabolic comorbidities in a German population with non-cirrhotic biopsy-proven NAFLD is high. While the examined scores exhibit an acceptable specificity, liver stiffness measurement appeared to be superior to blood-based non-invasive surrogate scores in ruling out advanced fibrosis.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Body Mass Index*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / diagnosis
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / epidemiology
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / metabolism
  • Elasticity Imaging Techniques / methods
  • Female
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Liver Cirrhosis / diagnosis*
  • Liver Cirrhosis / epidemiology*
  • Liver Cirrhosis / metabolism
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / diagnosis*
  • Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / epidemiology*
  • Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / metabolism
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prevalence
  • Prospective Studies
  • Registries