Spatio-temporal trends in the risk of adolescent pregnancy in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2000-2015

Purpose: To investigate, through a spatio-temporal analysis, the association between the percentages of live births of adolescent mothers (LBAM) and the human development index (HDI), including the three components: income, education and longevity.

Methods: The percentage of LBAM was obtained from the Brazilian Live Births Information System for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil in the period 2000-2015 and the HDI data and its components were obtained from United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) Human Development Reports. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risk of LBAM in relation to the HDI and to identify spatial clusters of the geographical distribution of LBAM, the Moran global and local index was used.

Results: There is an association between the HDI and its components with LBAM. The high values of relative risk are spatially concentrated in the northern part of the state of Minas Gerais. The graphs indicated a nonlinear relationship between LBAM over the years.

Conclusions: There is a strong spatial dependence of LBAM in Minas Gerais, which suggests that a geographical location plays a fundamental role in understanding it. The regional disparity confirmed in this study is inherent in the process of human development, it is important for planning actions aimed at the development of these regions in order to minimize existing disparities.