Role of liver and spleen stiffness in predicting the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Background & aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent complication of liver disease. When feasible, hepatic resection is the first-choice therapy. However, tumor recurrence complicates at least 2/3 hepatic resections at 5 years. Early recurrences are mainly tumor or treatment-related, but predictors of late recurrences are undefined. We aimed to evaluate the factors related to HCC recurrence after curative resection, with liver and spleen stiffness measurement (LSM and SSM) as markers of severity and duration of the underlying liver disease.

Methods: We enrolled patients with chronic liver disease and primary HCC suitable for hepatic resection. We followed up patients for at least 30 months or until HCC recurrence. We performed uni- and multivariate analyses to evaluate the predictive role of tumor characteristics, laboratory data, LSM and SSM for both early and late recurrence of HCC.

Results: We prospectively enrolled 175 patients. Early HCC recurrence at multivariate analysis was associated with viral etiology, HCC grading (3 or 4), resection margins <1 cm and being beyond the Milan criteria. HCC late recurrence at univariate analysis was associated with esophageal varices (hazard ratio [HR] 3.321, 95% CI 1.564-7.053), spleen length (HR 3.123, 95% CI 1.377-7.081), platelet/spleen length ratio if <909 (HR 2.170, 95% CI 1.026-4.587), LSM (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.005-1.067), SSM (HR 1.046, 95% CI 1.020-1.073). HCC late recurrence at multivariate analysis was independently associated only with SSM (HR 1.046, CI 1.020-1.073). Late HCC recurrence-free survival was significantly different according to the SSM cut-off of 70 kPa (p = 0.0002).

Conclusions: SSM seems to be the only predictor of late HCC recurrence, since it is directly correlated with the degree of liver disease and portal hypertension, both of which are involved in carcinogenesis.

Lay summary: The main result of this study is that spleen stiffness measurement, evaluated by transient elastography, seems to be the only predictor of the late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma, defined as recurrence after 24 months from liver resection. Indeed, spleen stiffness measurement is directly correlated with the degree of liver disease and portal hypertension, which are both involved in carcinogenesis.