Objective: To predict the incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan county from 2017 to 2019 on the basis of the incidence rates of lung cancer during 1987-2016.
Methods: Lung cancer incident cases were derived from cancer registry system of Jiashan. Crude incidence, age-standardized incidence rate by the Chinese standard population (ASR China) and the world standard population (ASR world) were calculated. Annual percent change (APC) was used to examine the temporal trend, and the autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA) of time series model was used to predict the incidence rates from 2017 to 2019.
Results: There were 6103 lung cancer incident cases during 1987-2016 in Jiashan county. Averagely, the crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world were 53.77/105, 25.24/105 and 34.15/105, respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world in male were 78.30/105, 34.77/105 and 51.87/105, which were higher than those in female (29.15/105, 14.31/105 and 17.99/105). Crude incidence rate increased from 27.58/105 in 1987 to 111.24/105 in 2016, and the APC was 5.28%. Crude incidence rate predicted by ARIMA model from 2017 to 2019 would be 135.64/105, 145.97/105 and 152.63/105, and the predicted crude incidence rate for 2017 was close to the real incidence rate in 2017 (135.95/105).
Conclusions: The incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan has been increased dramatically over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future.
目的: 了解浙江省嘉善县1987-2016年肺癌发生情况及变化趋势，并预测2017-2019年的发病情况，为肺癌防治提供科学依据。
方法: 利用嘉善县肿瘤登记报告系统中1987-2016年肺癌患者的资料，计算肺癌粗发病率、中国人口标准化发病率（中标率）和世界人口标准化发病率（世标率），用年度变化百分比（APC）评估发病率的时间变化趋势，并用时间序列分析方法中的ARIMA模型预测2017-2019年肺癌的发病率。
结果: 1987-2016年嘉善县肺癌新发病例6103例，粗发病率为53.77/10万，中标率和世标率分别为25.24/10万和34.15/10万，男性（粗发病率为78.30/10万，中标率为34.77/10万，世标率为51.87/10万）高于女性（粗发病率为29.15/10万，中标率为14.31/10万，世标率为17.99/10万）。1987-2016年嘉善县肺癌发病率呈上升趋势，从1987年的27.58/10万上升到2016年的111.24/10万，APC为5.28%。ARIMA模型预测2017、2018、2019年发病率分别为135.64/10万、145.97/10万和152.63/10万，其中2017年发病率预测值与实际值（135.95/10万）较吻合。
结论: 1987-2016年浙江省嘉善县肺癌发病率呈上升趋势，预计2017-2019年肺癌发病率会进一步上升。