The value of ultrasound in predicting isolated inter-twin discordance and adverse perinatal outcomes

Purpose: To investigate the value of ultrasound approaching delivery to predict isolated inter-twin discordance and adverse perinatal outcomes.

Methods: We retrospectively included twin pregnancies with sonography approaching delivery in ten maternal-foetal medicine centres in China from 2013 to 2014. Estimated foetal weight (EFW) and inter-twin EFW disparity (EFWD) were calculated based on biometry parameters. Percentage errors between EFW and actual birthweight or between EFWD and actual inter-twin disparity were calculated. ROC curves and multiple logistic regression were applied to evaluate the ability of EFWD to predict inter-twin disparity ≥ 25%, stillbirth, asphyxia and admission to a neonatal intensive unit (NICU). Chorionicity-stratified analysis was further performed.

Results: Two hundred sixty-six monochorionic and 760 dichorionic twin pregnancies were analysed. The percentage errors in foetal weight estimations were 7-13%, whereas percentage errors in the estimation of inter-twin disparity were nearly 100%. Among eight formulas, Hadlock1 performed best, with a detectable rate of 65% and a false positive rate of 5% when predicting inter-twin disparity ≥ 25%. EFWD ≥ 22% was strongly associated with stillbirth (OR = 4.17, 95% CI 1.40-12.40) and NICU admission (OR = 3.48, 95% CI 2.03-5.97) after adjustment for gestational age, parity and abnormal umbilical systolic/diastolic ratio. Ultrasound had better predictive ability in monochorionic twins.

Conclusion: The predictive value of ultrasound for isolated inter-twin discordance and adverse perinatal outcomes was limited, which was possibly due to the magnifying of systematic errors in the disparity estimation compared with weight estimation. Despite this, abnormal biometry was an independent contributor for the poor prognosis of neonates.