Background: Treatment of hepatitis C virus infections (HCV) with direct acting antivirals (DAA) can prevent new infections since cured individuals cannot transmit HCV. However, as DAAs are expensive, many countries defer treatment to advances stages of fibrosis, which results in ongoing transmission. We assessed the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of treatment initiation in different stages of infection in the Netherlands where the epidemic is mainly concentrated among HIV-infected MSMs.
Methods: We calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the Dutch HCV epidemic among HIV-infected MSM to compare three different DAA treatment scenarios: 1) immediate treatment, 2) treatment delayed to chronic infection allowing spontaneous clearance to occur, 3) treatment delayed until F2 fibrosis stage. All scenarios are simulated from 2015 onwards. Total costs, quality adjusted life years (QALY), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and epidemiological impact were calculated from a providers perspective over a lifetime horizon. We used a DAA price of €35,000 and 3% discounting rates for cost and QALYs.
Results: Immediate DAA treatment lowers the incidence from 1.2/100 person-years to 0.2/100 person-years (interquartile range 0.1-0.2) and the prevalence from 5.0/100 person-years to 0.5/100 person-years (0.4-0.6) after 20 years. Delayed treatment awaiting spontaneous clearance will result in a similar reduction. However, further delayed treatment to F2 will increases the incidence and prevalence. Earlier treatment will cost society €68.3 and €75.1 million over a lifetime for immediate and awaiting until the chronic stage, respectively. The cost will increase if treatment is further delayed until F2 to €98.4 million. Immediate treatment will prevent 7070 new infections and gains 3419 (3019-3854) QALYs compared to F2 treatment resulting in a cost saving ICER. Treatment in the chronic stage is however dominated.
Conclusions: Early DAA treatment for HIV-infected MSM is an excellent and sustainable tool to meet the WHO goal of eliminating HCV in 2030.