Objective: Lupus nephritis (LN) frequently progresses to end-stage renal disease. Finding a biomarker for LN and a predictor for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is important for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
Methods: Ninety patients with SLE were divided into biopsy-proven LN (n = 54) and no kidney involvement (non-LN) (n = 36) groups and followed up for 54 months.
Results: Of 36 patients with LN, 3 (5.6%) had class II disease, 3 (5.6%) had class III, 35 (64.8%) had class IV, 10 (18.5%) had class V, and 3 (5.6%) had class VI (advanced sclerosis). Compared to the non-LN group, patients in the LN group had higher autoimmunity evidenced by a higher proportion of low C3 and C4 levels, positive anti-double-stranded DNA antibody levels, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR). Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) levels were significantly higher in the LN group (LN vs non-LN, 670 vs 33 ng/mL, respectively). The patients with LN had a higher urinary polyomavirus BK (BKV) load (3.6 vs 3.0 log copies/mL) and a lower urinary BKV miRNA (miR-B1) 5p level (0.29 vs 0.55 log copies/mL, p = 0.025), while there was no significant difference in the level of miR-B1-3p. Urinary miR-B1-5p level but not urinary BKV load was negatively correlated with uNGAL level (r = -0.22, p = 0.004). At the cutoff value of 80 ng/mL, the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that uNGAL level as a predictor of the presence of LN had a high sensitivity (98%) and specificity (100%) (area under the curve [AUC], 0.997; p < 0.001). During the 54-month follow-up period, 14 (7%) patients with LN and none of the non-LN patients developed CKD. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that baseline uNGAL level was the only predictive factor for CKD development, while baseline serum creatinine level and eGFR were not.
Conclusion: An elevated urinary BKV viral load with a decreased level of miR-B1 implies the presence of LN. In addition, an increased uNGAL level is a good biomarker not only in predicting the presence of LN but also for prediction of CKD development in patients with SLE.