Predictive Value of Chromogranin A and a Pre-Operative Risk Score to Predict Recurrence After Resection of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

J Gastrointest Surg. 2019 Apr;23(4):651-658. doi: 10.1007/s11605-018-04080-1. Epub 2019 Jan 18.

Abstract

Intro: Chromogranin A (CgA) may be prognostic for patients with neuroendocrine tumors; however, the clinical utility of this test is unclear.

Methods: Patients undergoing resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) were selected from the eight institutions of the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group database. Cox regression was used to identify pre-operative variables that predicted recurrence-free survival (RFS), and those with p < 0.1 were included in a risk score. The risk score was tested in a unique subset of the overall cohort.

Results: In the entire cohort of 287 patients, median follow-up time was 37 months, and 5-year RFS was 73%. Cox regression analysis identified four variables for inclusion in the risk score: CgA > 5x ULN (HR 4.3, p = 0.01), tumor grade 2/3 (HR 3.7, p = 0.01), resection for recurrent disease (HR 6.2, p < 0.01), and tumor size > 4 cm (HR 4.5, p = 0.1). Each variable was assigned 1 point. Risk-score testing in the unique validation cohort of 63 patients revealed a 95% negative predictive value for recurrence in patients with zero points.

Discussion: This simple pre-operative risk scoring system resulted in a high degree of specificity for identifying patients at low-risk for tumor recurrence. This test can be utilized pre-operatively to aid informed decision-making.

Keywords: Chromogranin A; Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor; Recurrence; Risk score.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / blood*
  • Chromogranin A / blood*
  • Clinical Decision Rules*
  • Clinical Decision-Making / methods
  • Databases, Factual
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / blood
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / diagnosis*
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / etiology
  • Neuroendocrine Tumors / blood
  • Neuroendocrine Tumors / diagnosis
  • Neuroendocrine Tumors / surgery*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / blood
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care / methods*
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Chromogranin A