Pre-treatment serum bicarbonate predicts for primary tumor control after stereotactic body radiation therapy in patients with localized non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Tumor aggressiveness and hypoxia are linked to acidosis in the tumor microenvironment (TME). We hypothesized that low pre-treatment serum bicarbonate, potentially correlating with an acidic and hypoxic TME, predicts for poor outcomes after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Methods: We included patients with localized NSCLC treated to a biologically effective dose (BED) ≥ 100 Gy, with available pre-treatment bicarbonate values within 3 months of treatment. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the bicarbonate concentration optimally predicting for primary tumor recurrence, and evaluated its association with recurrence and survival. We validated our findings in an independent cohort of patients from three collaborating institutions.

Results: A total of 110 patients and 114 tumors were included in the training cohort, with median follow-up of 15.0 months. Bicarbonate < 26 mEq/L was associated with primary tumor recurrence on univariate (HR = 5.92; 95% CI 1.69-24.88; p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis (HR = 5.48; 95% CI 1.37-25.19; p = 0.020). The validation cohort consisted of 195 patients and 208 tumors with median follow-up of 27.5 months. In the validation cohort, bicarbonate < 26 mEq/L was again associated with primary tumor recurrence on univariate (HR = 3.38; 95% CI 1.27-9.37; p = 0.015) and multivariate analysis (HR = 3.33; 1.18-10.07; p = 0.023).

Conclusions: Pre-treatment bicarbonate predicts for primary tumor control in NSCLC treated with SBRT and may be useful for risk stratification. These findings should be confirmed prospectively.