Independent Predictors of Cardiac Mortality and Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Multi-Ethnic Asian ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Population Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Sci Rep. 2019 Jul 11;9(1):10072. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-46486-0.

Abstract

We aimed to identify independent predictors of cardiac mortality and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from a real-world, multi-ethnic Asian registry [the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry] of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention. 11,546 eligible STEMI patients between 2008 and 2015 were identified. In-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality and 1-year HHF rates were 6.4%, 6.8%, 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. From the derivation cohort (70% of patients), age, Killip class and cardiac arrest, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during hospitalization were predictors of in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality. Previous ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a predictor of in-hospital and 30-day cardiac mortality only, whereas diabetes was a predictor of 1-year cardiac mortality only. Age, previous IHD and diabetes, Killip class, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission, symptom-to-balloon-time and LVEF were predictors of 1-year HHF. The c-statistics were 0.921, 0.901, 0.881, 0.869, respectively. Applying these models to the validation cohort (30% of patients) showed good fit and discrimination (c-statistic 0.922, 0.913, 0.903 and 0.855 respectively; misclassification rate 14.0%, 14.7%, 16.2% and 24.0% respectively). These predictors could be incorporated into specific risk scores to stratify reperfused STEMI patients by their risk level for targeted intervention.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors*
  • Aged
  • Asian People*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Electrocardiography
  • Female
  • Heart Failure / diagnosis*
  • Heart Failure / mortality
  • Heart Failure / surgery
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Infarction / diagnosis*
  • Myocardial Infarction / mortality
  • Myocardial Infarction / surgery
  • Percutaneous Coronary Intervention*
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Factors
  • Singapore
  • Survival Analysis
  • Treatment Outcome