Noncontrast computer tomography-based radiomics model for predicting intracerebral hemorrhage expansion: preliminary findings and comparison with conventional radiological model

Objectives: To develop a radiomics model for predicting hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and to compare its predictive performance with a conventional radiological feature-based model.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 251 consecutive patients with acute ICH. Two radiologists independently assessed baseline noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) images. For each radiologist, a radiological model was constructed from radiological variables; a radiomics score model was constructed from high-dimensional quantitative features extracted from NCCT images; and a combined model was constructed using both radiological variables and radiomics score. Development of models was constructed in a primary cohort (n = 177). We then validated the results in an independent validation cohort (n = 74). The primary outcome was hematoma expansion. We compared the three models for predicting hematoma expansion. Predictive performance was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results: In the primary cohort, combined model and radiomics model showed greater AUCs than radiological model for both readers (all p < .05). In the validation cohort, combined model and radiomics model showed greater AUCs, sensitivities, and accuracies than radiological model for reader 2 (all p < .05). Combined model showed greater AUC than radiomics model for reader 1 only in the primary cohort (p = .03). Performance of three models was comparable between reader 1 and reader 2 in both cohorts (all p > .05).

Conclusions: NCCT-based radiomics model showed high predictive performance and outperformed radiological model in the prediction of early hematoma expansion in ICH patients.

Key points: • Radiomics model showed better performance for prediction of hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage than radiological feature-based model. • Hematomas which expanded in follow-up NCCT tended to be larger in baseline volume, more irregular in shape, more heterogeneous in composition, and coarser in texture. • A radiomics model provides a convenient and objective tool for prediction of hematoma expansion that helps to define subsets of patients who would benefit from anti-expansion therapy.