Predictors of loss to follow up among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus attending a private not for profit urban diabetes clinic in Uganda - a descriptive retrospective study

Background: Although the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing in Uganda, data on loss to follow up (LTFU) of patients in care is scanty. We aimed to estimate proportions of patients LTFU and document associated factors among patients attending a private not for profit urban diabetes clinic in Uganda.

Methods: We conducted a descriptive retrospective study between March and May 2017. We reviewed 1818 out-patient medical records of adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus registered between July 2003 and September 2016 at St. Francis Hospital - Nsambya Diabetes clinic in Uganda. Data was extracted on: patients' registration dates, demographics, socioeconomic status, smoking, glycaemic control, type of treatment, diabetes mellitus complications and last follow-up clinic visit. LTFU was defined as missing collecting medication for six months or more from the date of last clinic visit, excluding situations of death or referral to another clinic. We used Kaplan-Meier technique to estimate time to defaulting medical care after initial registration, log-rank test to test the significance of observed differences between groups. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine predictors of patients' LTFU rates in hazard ratios (HRs).

Results: Between July 2003 and September 2016, one thousand eight hundred eighteen patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus were followed for 4847.1 person-years. Majority of patients were female 1066/1818 (59%) and 1317/1818 (72%) had poor glycaemic control. Over the 13 years, 1690/1818 (93%) patients were LTFU, giving a LTFU rate of 34.9 patients per 100 person-years (95%CI: 33.2-36.6). LTFU was significantly higher among males, younger patients (< 45 years), smokers, patients on dual therapy, lower socioeconomic status, and those with diabetes complications like neuropathy and nephropathy.

Conclusion: We found high proportions of patients LTFU in this diabetes clinic which warrants intervention studies targeting the identified risk factors and strengthening follow up of patients.