Factors predictive of recurrence, metastasis, and death from primary basal cell carcinoma 2 cm or larger in diameter

J Am Acad Dermatol. 2020 Sep;83(3):832-838. doi: 10.1016/j.jaad.2019.09.075. Epub 2019 Oct 7.

Abstract

Background: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) recurrence and metastatic rates are known to be very low. The risk factors for these rare outcomes are subsequently not well studied.

Objective: To identify risk factors independently associated with local recurrence (LR) and metastasis and/or death (M/D) in large (≥2 cm) BCC.

Methods: BCCs histologically confirmed between 2000 and 2009 were retrospectively screened for tumor diameter at 2 academic centers. Medical records of all large BCCs and an equal number of randomly selected small BCCs were reviewed for LR and M/D.

Results: Included were 248 large BCC and 248 small BCC tumors. Large BCCs had a significantly higher risk of LR and M/D than small BCCs (LR: 8.9% vs 0.8%, P < .001; M/D: 6.5% vs. 0%, P < .001). Because the risks were so low in small BCCs, they were excluded from further analysis. On multivariable logistic regression, head/neck location (odds ratio [OR], 9.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-31.3) and depth beyond fat (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-9.6) were associated with LR in large BCCs. Risk of LR was lower with Mohs micrographic surgery (OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.04-0.5). Head/neck location (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.2-23.2), tumor diameter ≥4 cm (OR, 11.9; 95% CI, 2.4-59.4), and depth beyond fat (OR, 28.6; 95% CI, 6.7-121) were significant predictors of M/D in large BCCs.

Limitations: Retrospective cohort design.

Conclusions: Large BCCs, particularly those with additional risk factors, have a high enough risk of recurrence and metastasis to warrant further investigation to optimize management.

Keywords: LR; MMS; Mohs micrographic surgery; basal cell carcinoma; local recurrence; metastasis; outcomes; recurrence; risk factors.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Amputation, Surgical / statistics & numerical data
  • Brachytherapy / statistics & numerical data
  • Carcinoma, Basal Cell / mortality*
  • Carcinoma, Basal Cell / pathology
  • Carcinoma, Basal Cell / therapy
  • Chemoradiotherapy, Adjuvant / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mohs Surgery / statistics & numerical data
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / epidemiology*
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / pathology
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / prevention & control
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data
  • Risk Factors
  • Skin / pathology*
  • Skin Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Skin Neoplasms / pathology
  • Skin Neoplasms / surgery
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Tumor Burden