Positive correlation between pancreatic volume and post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

Background and aim: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) remains the most common and serious adverse event associated with ERCP. Risk factors for PEP have been described in various reports. However, risk factors have not been quantified to date. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors for PEP by quantification of pancreatic volume using pre-ERCP images.

Methods: Overall, 800 patients were recruited from April 2012 to February 2015 for this study. There were 168 patients who satisfied the inclusion criteria. Measurement of pancreatic volume was achieved using the volume analyzer SYNAPSE VINCENT in all cases and was used to evaluate the risk factors for PEP.

Results: According to the criteria established by the consensus guidelines (Cotton classification), 17 patients (10.1%) were classified as having mild disease, 4 (2.4%) as having moderate disease, and 5 (3.0%) as having severe disease. Multivariate model analysis showed that a large pancreatic volume was a significant risk factor for PEP (odds ratio [OR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.13; P < 0.001). In addition, the association between the pancreatic volume and the severity of PEP was positively correlated (the effect of volume [per 1 mL]; OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.07-1.12; P < 0.001, the effect of volume [per 10 mL]; OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.72-3.00; P < 0.001). A larger pancreatic volume was significantly associated with a higher incidence of PEP.

Conclusions: A large pancreatic volume was identified as a risk factor for PEP. The results of this study suggest that pre-ERCP images might be useful for predicting PEP.