Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season

Sheena G Sullivan; Carmen S Arriola; Judy Bocacao; Pamela Burgos; Patricia Bustos; Kylie S Carville; Allen C Cheng; Monique Bm Chilver; Cheryl Cohen; Yi-Mo Deng; Nathalie El Omeiri; Rodrigo A Fasce; Orienka Hellferscee; Q Sue Huang; Cecilia Gonzalez; Lauren Jelley; Vivian Ky Leung; Liza Lopez; Johanna M McAnerney; Andrea McNeill; Maria F Olivares; Heidi Peck; Viviana Sotomayor; Stefano Tempia; Natalia Vergara; Anne von Gottberg; Sibongile Walaza; Timothy Wood

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.45.1900645

Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season

Euro Surveill. 2019 Nov;24(45):1900645. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.45.1900645.

Authors

Sheena G Sullivan¹, Carmen S Arriola², Judy Bocacao³, Pamela Burgos⁴, Patricia Bustos⁵, Kylie S Carville⁶, Allen C Cheng^{7

8}, Monique Bm Chilver⁹, Cheryl Cohen¹⁰, Yi-Mo Deng¹¹, Nathalie El Omeiri¹², Rodrigo A Fasce¹³, Orienka Hellferscee¹⁰, Q Sue Huang³, Cecilia Gonzalez⁴, Lauren Jelley³, Vivian Ky Leung¹, Liza Lopez¹⁴, Johanna M McAnerney¹⁰, Andrea McNeill¹⁴, Maria F Olivares¹⁵, Heidi Peck¹¹, Viviana Sotomayor¹⁵, Stefano Tempia^{10

16

17

2}, Natalia Vergara¹⁵, Anne von Gottberg¹⁰, Sibongile Walaza¹⁰, Timothy Wood¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, and Doherty Department, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
² Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
³ National Influenza Centre, Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
⁴ Programa Nacional de Inmunizaciones, Ministerio de Salud, Santiago, Chile.
⁵ Sección de Virus Respiratorios y Exantematicos, Instituto de Salud Publica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
⁶ Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
⁷ School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
⁸ Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Health, and Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
⁹ Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
¹⁰ National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa.
¹¹ WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Reference and Research on Influenza, Melbourne, Australia.
¹² Pan American Health Organization(PAHO)/WHO Regional Office for the Americas, Washington, United States.
¹³ Subdepartamento de Enfermedades Virales, Instituto de Salud Publica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
¹⁴ Health Intelligence Team, Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
¹⁵ Departamento de Epidemiologia, Ministerio de Salud, Santiago, Chile.
¹⁶ Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa.
¹⁷ MassGenics, Duluth, United States.

PMID: 31718744
PMCID: PMC6852316
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.45.1900645

Abstract

We compared 2019 influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in four southern hemisphere countries: Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza seasons differed in timing, duration, intensity and predominant circulating viruses. VE estimates were also heterogeneous, with all-ages point estimates ranging from 7-70% (I2: 33%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 4-57% (I2: 49%) for A(H3N2) and 29-66% (I2: 0%) for B. Caution should be applied when attempting to use southern hemisphere data to predict the northern hemisphere influenza season.

Keywords: influenza; influenza vaccines; sentinel surveillance; southern hemisphere; vaccine effectiveness.

Publication types

Comparative Study

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Australia / epidemiology
Child
Chile / epidemiology
Female
Humans
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / genetics*
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / immunology
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / isolation & purification
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / genetics*
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / immunology
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / isolation & purification
Influenza B virus / genetics*
Influenza B virus / immunology
Influenza B virus / isolation & purification
Influenza Vaccines / administration & dosage
Influenza Vaccines / immunology*
Influenza, Human / diagnosis
Influenza, Human / epidemiology
Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
Influenza, Human / virology
Male
Middle Aged
New Zealand / epidemiology
Outcome Assessment, Health Care*
Population Surveillance
Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
Seasons
Sentinel Surveillance
South Africa / epidemiology
Vaccination / statistics & numerical data*
Vaccine Potency*

Substances

Influenza Vaccines