Prediction of individual responses to electroconvulsive therapy in patients with schizophrenia: Machine learning analysis of resting-state electroencephalography

Background: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) has strong efficacy in patients with treatment refractory schizophrenia. However, access to ECT has been limited by high costs, professional labor, treatment duration, and significant adverse effects. To provide support for the decision to perform ECT, we aimed to predict individual responses to ECT among patients with schizophrenia using machine learning analysis of resting-state electroencephalography (EEG).

Methods: Forty-seven patients diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder with EEG recordings before the course of ECT were treated at Seoul National University Hospital. Among these patients, 29 were responders who showed scores of 3 or less on the Clinical Global Impression Severity scale after the course of ECT. Transfer entropy (TE), which represents information flow, was extracted from baseline EEG data and used as a feature. Feature selection was performed with four methods, including Random Subset Feature Selection (RSFS). The random forest classifier was used to predict individual ECT responses.

Results: The averaged TE, especially in frontal regions, was higher in ECT responders than in nonresponders. A predictive model using the RSFS method classified ECT responders and nonresponders with 85.3% balanced accuracy, 85.2% accuracy, 88.7% sensitivity, and 81.8% specificity. The positive predictive value was 82.6%, and the negative predictive value was 88.2%.

Conclusions: The results of the current study suggest that higher effective connectivity in frontal areas may be associated with a favorable ECT response. Furthermore, personalized decisions to perform ECT in clinical practice could be augmented by resting-state EEG biomarkers of the ECT response in schizophrenia patients.