Do Patients Die with or from Metformin-Associated Lactic Acidosis (MALA)? Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of pH and Lactate as Predictors of Mortality in MALA

Objectives: Metformin-associated lactic acidosis (MALA) may occur after acute metformin overdose, or from therapeutic use in patients with renal compromise. The mortality is high, historically 50% and more recently 25%. In many disease states, lactate concentration is strongly associated with mortality. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to investigate the utility of pH and lactate concentration in predicting mortality in patients with MALA.

Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science from their inception to April 2019 for case reports, case series, prospective, and retrospective studies investigating mortality in patients with MALA. Cases and studies were reviewed by all authors and included if they reported data on pH, lactate, and outcome. Where necessary, authors of studies were contacted for patient-level data. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for pH and lactate for predicting mortality in patients with MALA.

Results: Forty-four studies were included encompassing 170 cases of MALA with median age of 68.5 years old. Median pH and lactate were 7.02 mmol/L and 14.45 mmol/L, respectively. Overall mortality was 36.2% (95% CI 29.6-43.94). Neither lactate nor pH was a good predictor of mortality among patients with MALA. The area under the ROC curve for lactate and pH were 0.59 (0.51-0.68) and 0.43 (0.34-0.52), respectively.

Conclusion: Our review found higher mortality from MALA than seen in recent studies. This may be due to variation in standard medical practice both geographically and across the study interval, sample size, misidentification of MALA for another disease process and vice versa, confounding by selection and reporting biases, and treatment intensity (e.g., hemodialysis) influenced by degree of pH and lactate derangement. The ROC curves showed poor predictive power of either lactate or pH for mortality in MALA. With the exception of patients with acute metformin overdose, patients with MALA usually have coexisting precipitating illnesses such as sepsis or renal failure, though lactate from MALA is generally higher than would be considered survivable for those disease states on their own. It is possible that mortality is more related to that coexisting illness than MALA itself, and many patients die with MALA rather than from MALA. Additional work looking solely at MALA in healthy patients with acute metformin overdose may show a closer relationship between lactate, pH, and mortality.