Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI criteria successfully predicts the absence of high-risk gastro-oesophageal varices in a Chilean cohort

Background: Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria have been recommended to circumvent the need for endoscopy screening in patients with a very low probability of varices needing treatment (VNT).

Aim: To validate these criteria in a Latin American population.

Methods: The ability of Baveno VI criteria (liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 103/μL) and expanded Baveno VI criteria (LSM < 25kPa and platelet count >110 × 103/μL) to exclude the presence of VNT was tested in a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with Child-Pugh A liver cirrhosis and with no previous variceal haemorrhage who attended the liver clinics of three major hospitals in Chile.

Results: Three hundred patients were included. The median (IQR) age was 61 [18-86] years, median MELD was 8.0 (6-17), median LSM was 17.2 (10.2-77) kPa and median platelet count was 137 (23-464) × 10³ /μL. The main aetiology was non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (67.3%). VNT were present in 18% of patients. The Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 98.1% and a specificity of 38.2%, potentially sparing 31.3% of upper endoscopies with a very low risk of missing VNT (1.1%). The expanded Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 90.7% and a specificity of 61%, potentially sparing 51.3% of upper endoscopies with a risk of missing VNT of 3.6%. Both criteria were independently associated with the absence of VNT.

Conclusion: We validated the Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria in Chilean population, potentially sparing 31.3% and 51.3% of endoscopies, respectively, with a very low risk of missing VNT. Fondecyt 1191183.