Background In nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF), oral anticoagulants prevent ischemic strokes and transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), but nonpersistence with vitamin K antagonist (VKA) oral anticoagulant therapy (20-50% at 1 year) is problematic. The precise risk of stroke/TIA after VKA cessation and its time course during extended follow-up is unknown. Methods and Results The study cohort of incident AF in patients receiving initial VKA between 2001 and 2013 was identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (linked hospitalizations and causes of death). Using a nested case-control analysis, patients with incident stroke/TIA were matched to patients without stroke/TIA (controls). Relative risk with time since VKA cessation compared with current VKA use was approximated from conditional logistic regression. We studied 16 696 patients with incident AF and initial VKA treatment. There were 489 stroke/TIA cases matched to 2137 controls (mean CHA2DS2-VASc score 4.3). Compared with current VKA use, the excess incidence rate of stroke/TIA following VKA cessation in the first year after AF diagnosis was 2.29 (95% CI, 0.98-3.90) per 100 person-years of VKA cessation or 1 additional stroke/TIA per 43 patients per year discontinuing VKA, compared with 1.43 (95% CI, 0.97-1.88) per 100 person-years corresponding to 1 additional stroke/TIA per 70 patients per year, when VKA was discontinued more than 1 year after AF diagnosis. Conclusions VKA cessation is associated with a continuous excess thromboembolic stroke/TIA risk. Increasing oral anticoagulant persistence, especially in the year after AF diagnosis, should be a therapeutic target to reduce stroke/TIA in AF.
Keywords: anticoagulants; atrial fibrillation; stroke; transient ischemic attack; treatment cessation.