Cigarette Smoking and Nicotine Dependence Trajectories Among Incident Adolescent Smokers

Introduction: Few interventions target adolescent cigarette smokers to prevent escalation in cigarette use or promote cessation, in part because little is known about co-developing smoking and nicotine dependence (ND). Our objectives were to: (1) estimate developmental trajectories of ND/cravings, withdrawal symptoms, the modified Fagerström Tolerance Questionnaire (mFTQ) and ICD-10 tobacco dependence in incident adolescent smokers; (2) describe concordance in number and shapes of trajectories across the four ND indicators; and (3) classify participants in each ND trajectory according to cigarette smoking trajectories.

Methods: Data were drawn from an ongoing longitudinal investigation of 1294 grade 7 students recruited in 1999-2000 in 10 Montreal-area high schools. Group-based joint trajectory models were used to identify distinct subgroups defined by the four ND indicators, in 307 incident smokers.

Results: The optimal trajectory model included five groups for ND/craving and four groups for each of withdrawal symptoms, the mFTQ and ICD-10 tobacco dependence. The four ND indicators showed similar developmental patterns and classification into smoking trajectory groups, although some discordance was observed. Smokers in the low-level decreaser group and stable low consumers who exhibited high ND were younger than those in the cigarette-low ND trajectory groups. Moderate or rapid escalators who exhibited no/low ND were less likely to have university-educated mothers and more likely to have parents who smoke.

Conclusions: Trajectories were similar across ND indicators, and generally reflected cigarette smoking trajectory shapes. Novice smokers may need education to become self-aware of developing ND symptoms, as well as to learn about alternative courses of action once ND symptoms manifest.

Implications: Trajectories of cigarette smoking and ND symptoms have rarely been investigated concurrently. This study provides evidence of high concordance across four distinct ND indicators in the proportion of participants with no/low-level dependence, and with high or increasing ND. Moreover, the development of cigarette smoking is concordant with ND symptom development. Interventions to prevent escalation and promote cessation should target adolescents before first puff to increase self-awareness of developing ND symptoms, as well as to learn about alternative courses of action once ND symptoms are experienced.