Power calculations for cluster randomized trials (CRTs) with right-truncated Poisson-distributed outcomes: a motivating example from a malaria vector control trial

Background: Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are increasingly used to study the efficacy of interventions targeted at the population level. Formulae exist to calculate sample sizes for CRTs, but they assume that the domain of the outcomes being considered covers the full range of values of the considered distribution. This assumption is frequently incorrect in epidemiological trials in which counts of infection episodes are right-truncated due to practical constraints on the number of times a person can be tested.

Methods: Motivated by a malaria vector control trial with right-truncated Poisson-distributed outcomes, we investigated the effect of right-truncation on power using Monte Carlo simulations.

Results: The results demonstrate that the adverse impact of right-truncation is directly proportional to the magnitude of the event rate, λ, with calculations of power being overestimated in instances where right-truncation was not accounted for. The severity of the adverse impact of right-truncation on power was more pronounced when the number of clusters was ≤30 but decreased the further the right-truncation point was from zero.

Conclusions: Potential right-truncation should always be accounted for in the calculation of sample size requirements at the study design stage.