Prediction of nosocomial acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis admitted to hospital with acute decompensation

Nosocomial acute-on-chronic liver failure (nACLF) develops in at least 10% of patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for acute decompensation (AD), greatly worsening their prognosis. In this prospective observational study, we aimed to identify rapidly obtainable predictors at admission, which allow for the early recognition and stratification of patients at risk of nACLF.

Methods: A total of 516 consecutive patients hospitalized for AD of cirrhosis were screened: those who did not present ACLF at admission (410) were enrolled and surveilled for the development of nACLF.

Results: Fifty-nine (14%) patients developed nALCF after a median of 7 (IQR 4-18) days. At admission, they presented a more severe disease and higher degrees of systemic inflammation and anemia than those (351; 86%) who remained free from nACLF. Competing risk multivariable regression analysis showed that baseline MELD score (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.15; 95% CI 1.10-1.21; p ≪0.001), hemoglobin level (sHR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68-0.96; p = 0.018), and leukocyte count (sHR 1.11; 95% CI 1.06-1.16; p ≪0.001) independently predicted nACLF. Their optimal cut-off points, determined by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, were: 13 points for MELD score, 9.8 g/dl for hemoglobin, and 5.6x10⁹/L for leukocyte count. These thresholds were used to stratify patients according to the cumulative incidence of nACLF, being 0, 6, 21 and 59% in the presence of 0, 1, 2 or 3 risk factors (p ≪0.001). Nosocomial bacterial infections only increased the probability of developing nACLF in patients with at least 1 risk factor, rising from 3% to 29%, 16% to 50% and 52% to 83% in patients with 1, 2 or 3 risk factors, respectively.

Conclusions: Easily available laboratory parameters, related to disease severity, systemic inflammation, and anemia, can be used to identify, at admission, hospitalized patients with AD at increased risk of developing nACLF.

Lay summary: More than 10% of patients with cirrhosis hospitalized because of an acute decompensation develop acute-on-chronic liver failure, which is associated with high short-term mortality, during their hospital stay. We found that the combination of 3 easily obtainable variables (model for end-stage liver disease score, leukocyte count and hemoglobin level) help to identify and stratify patients according to their risk of developing nosocomial acute-on-chronic liver failure, from nil to 59%. Moreover, if a nosocomial bacterial infection occurs, such an incidence proportionally increases from nil to 83%. This simple approach helps to identify patients at risk of developing nosocomial acute-on-chronic liver failure at admission to hospital, enabling clinicians to put in place preventive measures.