Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn's disease patients: A retrospective study

Background: Accelerated therapeutic treatment should be considered in patients with progressive Crohn's disease (CD) to prevent complications as well as surgery. Therefore, screening for risk factors and predicting the need for early surgery are of great importance in clinical practice.

Aim: To establish a model to predict CD-related early surgery.

Methods: This was a retrospective study collecting data from CD patients diagnosed at our inflammatory bowel disease center from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. All data were randomly stratified into a training set and a testing set at a ratio of 8:2. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted with receiver operating characteristic curves constructed and areas under the curve calculated. This model was further validated with calibration and discrimination estimated. A nomogram was finally developed.

Results: A total of 1002 eligible patients were enrolled with a mean follow-up period of 53.54 ± 13.10 mo. In total, 24.25% of patients received intestinal surgery within 1 year after diagnosis due to complications or disease relapse. Disease behavior (B2: OR [odds ratio] = 6.693, P < 0.001; B3: OR = 14.405, P < 0.001), smoking (OR = 4.135, P < 0.001), body mass index (OR = 0.873, P < 0.001) and C-reactive protein (OR = 1.022, P = 0.001) at diagnosis, previous perianal (OR = 9.483, P < 0.001) or intestinal surgery (OR = 8.887, P < 0.001), maximum bowel wall thickness (OR = 1.965, P < 0.001), use of biologics (OR = 0.264, P < 0.001), and exclusive enteral nutrition (OR = 0.089, P < 0.001) were identified as independent significant factors associated with early intestinal surgery. A prognostic model was established and further validated. The receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated areas under the curves (94.7%) confirmed an ideal predictive ability of this model with a sensitivity of 75.92% and specificity of 95.81%. A nomogram was developed to simplify the use of the predictive model in clinical practice.

Conclusion: This prognostic model can effectively predict 1-year risk of CD-related intestinal surgery, which will assist in screening progressive CD patients and tailoring therapeutic management.